The United States must go back to work to avoid lasting economic damage from the coronavirus shutdown. Failure to take sensible precautions could however repeat the mistakes of 1918 when premature relaxation of countermeasures resulted in unnecessary deaths and hospitalizations.

There are fortunately off-the-shelf non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that can reduce opportunities for contagion, along with administrative controls such as staggered work shifts and meal breaks that reduce the number of people present at any given time. Respiratory protection offers yet another line of defense should COVID-19 ever return in its current form, or a mutated one against which the vaccines under development will not work.

Organizations have meanwhile been compelled to make telecommuting and distance education work, which in fact eliminates the need for brick and mortar structures along with their associated capital and maintenance costs. Continuation of these approaches, therefore, offers enormous savings even when they are no longer necessary for protection against COVID-19.

Areas Covered in the Session:-

• The United States cannot shut down its economy indefinitely to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but premature relaxation of precautions will lead to unnecessary deaths as shown by similar events during the 1918 flu pandemic.
  • Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and face masks worked against the 1918 flu but the disease returned when people dropped their guard.
  • NPIs also worked against the 1956-1957 flu and have also, in conjunction with the annual vaccine, apparently ended the 2019-2020 flu season a good month early.
• NPIs work by suppressing a disease’s basic reproduction number R0, the average number of people to whom an infected person will give a disease. Suppression of R0 to less than 1 means there is no curve to flatten as the disease goes into a decline right out of the starting gate.
  • Vaccination meanwhile reduces the susceptible fraction of the population, which is a strong argument for the encouragement of the annual flu vaccination.
• Workplace NPIs include engineering controls (such as partitions, barriers, and HVAC changes), administrative controls such as staggered shifts and one-way aisles, and personal protective equipment (PPE).
  • "Distance (between respiratory tracts) is our friend.” A cough can propagate infectious aerosols to more than 10 feet, but distance can be added through partitions and other engineering controls without the need for more floor space. It should, for example, probably be unnecessary for restaurants to remove half their tables to achieve social distancing.
  • Staggered shifts and meal breaks mean fewer people are present at any given time.
  • Changes to HVAC can reduce contagion substantially, and ASHRAE offers substantial guidance here.
  • OSHA (https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf) offers detailed guidance on workplace protection.
• Face masks and respirators can offer substantial protection, but not all are equal.
  • Experiments conducted in 1918 and much more recently show that face masks are not as effective against contagion from coughs as from ordinary respiration.
  • N95 masks and surgical masks must meet certain specifications that quantify their level of protection against contagion.
  • Improvised masks offer lesser, but nonetheless substantial, protection. Protection depends on the material and the number of layers.
  • Masks and respirators must be worn and handled properly to be effective.
  • Disposable N95 masks can be sanitized for reuse without degrading their effectiveness greatly, but the proper methods must be used.
• Organizations have perforce had to make telecommuting, distance education, and distance conferencing work for knowledge-based jobs. This offers enormous opportunities to eliminate the capital and maintenance costs associated with office and classroom space. The benefits can be shared among stakeholders in the form of lower costs for customers, higher compensation for employees, and higher profits for investors and owners.

Attendees will receive pdf copies of the slides and accompanying notes including references for the material cited in the presentation, and also an Excel spreadsheet for demonstration of the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) model that attendees can use to teach others about the benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions and also the annual flu vaccine.

Key Take-Away:-

Attendees will learn the risks associated with reopening businesses in the aftermath of COVID-19, along with the availability of non-pharmaceutical interventions to improve safety for employees, customers, and other stakeholders. Adaptations to the epidemic through work-from-home and distance education have meanwhile opened the door for enormous financial savings through reduced use of brick-and-mortar structures, and their associated costs.

Why Should You Attend:-

Your business might be among those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak due to compulsory shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, or economic fallout. There is meanwhile no guarantee that COVID-19 will cease to be a danger in the second half of 2020, or that it will not return in a mutated form that would make the currently recommended solution, a vaccine, futile.

This webinar will provide a comprehensive overview, with links to authoritative sources, of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that workplaces can use to mitigate contagion and also help ensure that radical measures like shutdowns will not be necessary should COVID-19 or anything like it ever return. A key takeaway is that distance (between respiratory tracts) is our friend in the context of not only coronavirus but also the seasonal flu, and distance can be added without the need for more floor space per employee and customer. As but one example, restaurants probably do not need to remove half their tables to achieve social distancing; partitions and enclosed booths will probably deliver the same if not better results. Changes to heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) can also suppress contagion.

Respiratory protection such as face masks was effective even in 1918 when they did not have N95 respirators. Not all face masks are equal, though, and they are usually less effective against coughs than ordinary respiration. Attendees will learn criteria for selection (e.g. laboratory certification results) and the use of face masks and respirators, which should be widely available later in 2020 as production ramps up. Respiratory protection will offer yet another line of defense should COVID-19 ever come back, thus making it unnecessary for widespread business shutdowns.

The United States was meanwhile forced to adapt to the loss of access to natural rubber during the Second World War through the development of synthetic rubber, which proved superior. Your organization may have had to similarly adapt to COVID-19 through work-from-home, distance education, and distance conferencing all of which eliminate the need for physical office space and classrooms, and their associated costs. This may position your organization to realize enormous savings by continuing to use remote work technology even after COVID-19 is no longer a threat.

Who Will Benefit:-

All people in decision-making positions with regard to (1) business strategy and (2) addressing the COVID-19 outbreak, including the restart of operations after coronavirus-related shutdowns.